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Guizhou Moutai (600519): The first quarterly report on revenue and profits is a good start, waiting for the proportion of direct sales to increase

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Guizhou Moutai (600519): The first quarterly report on revenue and profits is a good start, waiting for the proportion of direct sales to increase
The event company released the first quarter of 2019 and realized total operating income of 224 in January-March 2019.81 ppm, an increase of 22 in ten years.2%, net profit of return to mother 112.21 ppm, an increase of 31 in ten years.9%, increase by 32 after non-deduction.79%.  Brief comment on Q1 revenue and profit increased significantly, performance exceeded expectations, the start of 19Q1 company’s revenue and return to net profit in the first half of the company’s growth rate were 22.2%, 31.9%, better than Maotai’s first quarterly report on revenue and profit growth; continued the high growth momentum, and the growth rate was better than market expectations, mainly due to the confirmation of some advance receipts, and it is expected that the Q1 statement confirmation amount will reach 1,000 tons, which will increase 22 times.6%, the ton price was previously raised to 0.89%, non-standard wine slightly increased.18Q4 + 19Q1 totaled operating income of 447.110,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.9%; net profit attributable to mother was 216.920,000 yuan, an increase of 39 in ten years.0%.According to the announcement, in 19Q1 Moutai, the series wine income was 194.98, 21.32 ppm, an increase of 23 in ten years.7%, 26.9%; if 18Q4 + 19Q1 is combined, the income of Maotai and series wines is 387.20, 42.760,000 yuan, an increase of 30 in ten years.1%, 24.2%.  In Q1, actual shipments were insufficient, direct sales increased significantly, and approval prices continued to increase. From market analysis and feedback, market shortages were most severe in the first quarter; actual shipments in Q1 were expected to be only about 8,000 tons, an increase of more than 5%.1Q1 direct sales channel income was 10.9.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21.6%, direct sales accounted for 8 from 18Q1.0% down 2.9 points to 5.0%; if 18Q4 + 19Q1 is combined, the direct channel revenue is 15.97 ppm, a reduction of 56 per year.1%, the proportion of direct sales revenue fell by 7.2 points to 3.7%.Mainly affected by the channel adjustment started in 18Q4, the proportion of direct sales decreased significantly.Due to the severe imbalance between supply and demand in the Moutai market, the approval price is always in an upward cycle.The Maotai approval price has risen from the initial 1700-1780 approval price to around 1900 yuan this week.  Net profit margin continued to increase, and advance receipts declined. Revenue was recognized in 19Q1. The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin was 92.4%, a year to raise 0.7 points; net profit margin 49.9%, an increase of 3 per year.7 points.In terms of expense ratio, the sales expense ratio is 3.9%, same as minus 1.3pct; management expense ratio 6.5%, slightly decreased by 0.1pct; period expense rate is 10.4%, down 1.3pct, the cost rate continues to decline.The company received 113 advance funds at the end of Q1.8.5 billion, a decrease of 21 from the end of 18 years.9.2 billion yuan.Q1 Net operating cash flow 11.89 trillion, down 75 a year.9% was mainly due to the increase in the net replenishment of central banks and interbanks and the increase in fees and taxes paid, and the cumulative increase in cash inflows from operating activities27.4%, of which the cash received for selling goods and providing services also increased by 17.5% is comparable to revenue growth.  In the second quarter, waiting for the proportion of direct sales to increase significantly drives the ton price to increase. According to the company ‘s December 2018 dealer conference, the focus will be on expanding direct sales channels and promoting marketing segmentation to reduce intermediate segmentation and balance.Distribution of benefits to stabilize terminal prices.On the surface and volume, expand direct sales in various provinces; cooperate with large-scale supermarkets; cooperate with well-known e-commerce; invest in internal key market airports, distribution points of high-speed rail stations . Soon, Maotai issued the first batch of commercial hypermarkets investment announcements, toThe country and Guizhou Province supply 400 tons and 200 tons of 53-degree Feitian Moutai, which are put on the market according to 1499.We believe that although the amount of investment in the short-term is reduced, it marks the implementation of the self-operated and direct-selling channel network solution for the gradual transformation and increase of Moutai channels, indicating the company’s attitude and determination to increase direct supply in the future.It is expected that Q2 will be completed through direct sales channels, and the direct sales ratio will be significantly higher than Q1, which will increase the ton price.However, for the market scale, due to the increase in the proportion of direct sales, it affects the approval price of Moutai. We believe that the first batch of direct sales is only 600 tons, and the short-term impact on the price of Moutai is limited. In the future, the direct supply of Moutai will increase.A slight decrease will be beneficial to the increase of the opening rate of Maotai, and will be conducive to the long-term healthy 重庆耍耍网 development of Maotai.  Long-term growth space is determined. With reference to overseas spirits leaders, it is estimated that scarce leaders are still expected to increase their base wine production for 18 years according to the Maotai Liquor Announcement and planned base wine production for 2020 to reach 5.6 is the earliest. It can be estimated that the sales volume of Moutai will reach 4 in 2024.Around 7 years ago, the annual sales volume increased by more than 40% in 2018; Moutai canceled the dealer’s reservations in the past few years and expected to reach about 4,000 tons. In the future, it is expected that recycling will be put into direct sales or increase the sales of non-standard wine, which will bring a significant increase in the price of tons.; At present, the supply and demand structure of Moutai liquor is still tight, 杭州桑拿 the approval price is still slowly increasing, the price difference between the ex-factory price and the terminal retail price is obvious, and the channel profit exceeds 100%. It is expected that there is still room for price increase in the future.In summary, in the next few years, the compound growth rate of Moutai will reach about 15%. With reference to foreign spirits leaders, Tiagio, Baifumen, Pernod Ricard, etc., it is expected that Moutai is still expected to further increase to 30X, or even 20% + Space, highly recommended.  Earnings forecast and investment recommendations We expect the company’s revenue growth rate to be 15 in 2019-2020.90% 15.09%, the growth rate of net profit attributable to mothers was 20 respectively.6%, 17.4%, the corresponding EPS is 33.80, 39.69 yuan, maintain BUY rating, target price of 1150 yuan.