GF Securities (000776)： Investment-driven ROE rebounded significantly, stock pledge and bond investment scaled down
GF Securities (000776): Investment-driven ROE rebounded significantly, stock pledge and bond investment scaled down
1H18 performance was slightly lower than our expectation of GF Securities 1H19 revenue at least + 57% to 119.
400 million; net profit attributable to mother for ten years + 44% to 41.
4 ‰; corresponding to 2Q19 net profit is higher than -9% / MoM -58% to 12.
200 million; performance was slightly lower than expected, mainly due to the liquidation of overseas funds to accrue estimated liabilities (foreign funds calculated before the termination of the investment income3.
0 ppm, but 4 may be accrued due to subsequent legal disputes.
0 trillion USD budget bonds and bond investment credit impairment growth.
In addition, the company’s net assets are +6 for ten years.
9% to 899 ppm; 1H19 annualized return on net assets +2 per second.
8ppt to 9.
5%; performance and management fees for ten years -10.
1ppt to 38.
Development trend Brokerage income rose less than the industry, and the commission rate declined.
Company 1H19 brokerage income + 17% to 23 per year.
2 trillion, corresponding to a commission rate of ten years -7.
3% to 10,000.
8. The decline is slightly higher than the industry, but the overall level is still a premium compared to the industry (vs.
1); market share maintained at?
In addition, the income from consignment of financial products is -19% per year to 71.11 million yuan, and seat rental income is stable at 2.
Investment income has grown significantly, and the scale of bond investment has declined.
Investment income + 69% to 42 per year.
200 million, accounting for 35% of revenue.
The size of transactional financial assets is stable at US $ 87.3 billion, corresponding to an annualized return on investment of +2 each time.
3ppt to 9.
6%; in its asset size structure, the proportion of bonds is lower than comparable securities firms (bonds: funds: brokers’ wealth management: stocks: other = 30%: 35%: 12%: 7%: 17%), and the size of bonds has been compressed earlier32% to 25.9 billion yuan.
Interest income from financing has continued to shrink with the market size and share size.
^ Net income is -20% to 15 per year.
4 trillion, of which the interest income of Liangrong is -23% to 17 per year.
300 million (end balance of 44.7 billion, market share of 4.
9%), the stock quality rate is -23% to 6 per second.
600 million (end balance decreased 33% from the beginning of the year to 15.1 billion).
The current credit impairment is increased by 3 each year.
700 million to 4.
60,000 yuan, mainly due to the increase in impairment losses on debt and other debt investments (combined with 3).
0 billion) investment bank income for ten years -8% to 5.
200 million, 佛山桑拿网 refinancing (+ 255% to 11.2 billion) and the size of bond underwriting (+ 178% to 78.4 billion) have increased significantly, and the rate may be under pressure.
Asset management income + 7% to 20 per year.
0 million yuan, the size of the collection is still down, but the profitability has been strengthened.
The scale of the pool was -12% to 1586 ppm from the beginning of the year, and the corresponding pooled asset management income increased by + 29% to 6.
Earnings forecasts and estimates due to lowered securities investment scale assumptions.
We cut our net profit for 2019/2020 by 5% / 4% to 74.
5 ppm / 79.
The company is currently trading at 1.
1x / 1.
1×2019 / 2020e P / B.
We maintain our Neutral rating and slightly lower our target price by 2% to 15.
51 yuan, corresponding to 1.
3x 19e P / B and 17% growth space.
The amount of risky transactions dropped significantly, the stock / bond market fluctuated sharply, and regulatory uncertainty.